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The polls are open for general elections in Holland, with recent surveys suggesting that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their win the most seats, though analysts believe the party is unlikely of being part of the future coalition.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

The PVV, which previously pulled off a surprise top result and established a four-party all-conservative coalition that lasted barely a year, is now marginally ahead in the polls and is forecast to win between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-member house of representatives.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's popularity has dipped since 2023, when it secured 37 seats. All major parties have stated they will not forming a government with Wilders, and who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in June amid a dispute concerning his radical anti-refugee proposals.

Key Contenders and Projections

At the end of a campaign dominated by issues such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the country's severe housing crisis, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, expected to win between 22 and 26 seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, projected to boost its representation by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all forecast to lose seats, with several facing heavy declines.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just less than one percent of the national vote earns a party one MP. Among the 27 parties participating in the vote – including parties for the over-50s, youth parties, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 could enter parliament.

This significant fragmentation means that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and Holland has been ruled by coalitions – often including several groups in recent governments – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the his party becomes the biggest group yet is shut out of government. But, critics and analysts argue that first place does not assure government participation and that any coalition with a majority is a democratic outcome.

While the final outcome is hard to predict and coalition talks could take several months, analysts indicate that after the most radical administration in its recent history, the future government is likely to be a broad-based coalition headed by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, began operations at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable post-voting survey is expected soon after the polls close.

After the vote, an informateur will explore possible coalitions that could command a majority in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.