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Back in October 2022, as Rishi Sunak assumed office as British prime minister, he was the fifth consecutive British prime minister to take up the role over a six-year span.

Unleashed on the UK by Brexit, this represented unprecedented political turmoil. So how might we describe what is unfolding in France, now on its fifth prime minister in 24 months – three of them in the last ten months?

The current premier, the newly reinstated Sébastien Lecornu, may have secured a temporary reprieve on that day, sacrificing Emmanuel Macron’s key pension reform in return for support from Socialist lawmakers as the cost of his administration's continuation.

But it is, at best, a short-term solution. The EU’s number two economic power is locked in a ongoing governmental crisis, the scale of which it has not experienced for decades – possibly not since the establishment of its Fifth Republic in 1958 – and from which there seems no simple way out.

Minority Rule

Essential context: ever since Macron initiated an ill-advised snap general election in 2024, France has had a divided assembly split into three opposing factions – the left, far right and his own centre-right alliance – none with anything close to a majority.

At the same time, the country faces dual debt and deficit crises: its national debt level and deficit are now nearly double the EU limit, and strict legal timelines to pass a 2026 budget that at least begins to rein in spending are approaching.

In this challenging environment, both Lecornu’s immediate predecessors – Michel Barnier, who served from September to December 2024, and François Bayrou, who held the position from December 2024 to September 2025 – were ousted by the assembly.

In mid-September, the president appointed his trusted associate Lecornu as his new prime minister. But when, a little over two weeks ago, Lecornu unveiled his new cabinet – which proved to be largely unchanged from before – he encountered anger from both supporters and rivals.

To such an extent that the next day, he resigned. After only 27 days as premier, Lecornu became the briefest-serving prime minister in modern French history. In a dignified speech, he cited political rigidity, saying “party loyalties” and “certain egos” would make his job virtually unworkable.

A further unexpected development: shortly after Lecornu’s resignation, Macron asked him to stay on for two more days in a final attempt to salvage cross-party backing – a mission, to put it mildly, filled with challenges.

Next, two ex-prime ministers publicly turned on the struggling leader. Meanwhile, the right-wing RN and leftist LFI refused to meet Lecornu, vowing to reject all future administrations unless there were early elections.

Lecornu stuck at his job, talking to everyone who was prepared to hear him out. At the end of his 48 hours, he appeared on television to say he believed “a path still existed” to avoid elections. The leader's team announced the president would appoint a new prime minister 48 hours later.

Macron honored his word – and on that Friday appointed … Sébastien Lecornu, again. So this week – with Macron commenting from the wings that the nation's opposing groups were “fuelling division” and “entirely to blame for the turmoil” – was Lecornu’s moment of truth. Could he survive – and is he able to approve the crucial budget?

In a high-stakes speech, the 39-year-old PM spelled out his budget priorities, giving the Socialist party, who detest Macron’s controversial pension changes, what they were waiting for: Macron’s key policy would be suspended until 2027.

With the right-wing LR already supportive, the Socialists said they would refuse to support censorship votes proposed against Lecornu by the extremist factions – meaning the administration would likely endure those ballots, scheduled for Thursday.

It is, nevertheless, far from guaranteed to be able to pass its planned €30bn budget squeeze: the PS explicitly warned that it would be demanding further compromises. “This move,” said its leader, Olivier Faure, “is only the beginning.”

Changing Political Culture

The issue is, the more Lecornu cedes to the centre-left, the more he will meet resistance from the centre-right. And, similar to the Socialists, the conservatives are themselves split on dealing with the administration – certain members remain eager to bring it down.

A look at the seat numbers shows how tough Lecornu’s task – and future viability – will be. A total of 264 deputies from the RN, radical-left LFI, Greens, Communists and hardline-right UDR seek his removal.

To achieve that, they need a 288-vote majority in parliament – so if they can persuade just 24 of the PS’s 69 members or the LR’s 47 (or both) to vote with them, Macron’s fifth precarious prime minister in 24 months is, similar to his forerunners, toast.

Most expect this to occur soon. Even if, by an unlikely turn, the divided parliament summons up the collective responsibility to approve a budget this year, the outlook afterward look bleak.

So is there a way out? Early elections would be doubtful to resolve the issue: surveys indicate pretty much every party bar the RN would see reduced representation, but there would remain no decisive majority. A new prime minister would confront identical numerical challenges.

Another possibility might be for Macron himself to step down. After a presidential vote, his replacement would dissolve parliament and hope to secure a parliamentary majority in the following election. But this also remains unclear.

Surveys show the next occupant of the Elysée Palace will be Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella. There is at least an strong possibility that French electorate, having elected a far-right president, might think twice about handing them control of parliament.

In the end, France may not emerge from its quagmire until its politicians acknowledge the changed landscape, which is that decisive majorities are a bygone phenomenon, winner-takes-all no longer applies, and negotiation doesn't mean defeat.

Many think that cultural shift will not be possible under the country’s current constitution. “This is no conventional parliamentary crisis, but a crise de régime” that will prove anything but temporary.

“The regime … was never designed to facilitate – and actively discourages – the formation of ruling alliances common in the rest of Europe. The Fifth Republic could be in its final stage.”